Opinion | America the Cowardly Bully – By Paul Krugman – The New York Times

Paul Krugman

By Paul Krugman

Opinion Columnist

Image.  President Trump’s trade belligerence has done lasting damage to America’s reputation.CreditCreditPete Marovich for The New York Times

“This is the way the trade war ends. Not with a bang but with empty bombast.

According to multiple news organizations, the U.S. and China are close to a deal that would effectively end trade hostilities. Under the reported deal, America would remove most of the tariffs it imposed last year. China, for its part, would end its retaliatory tariffs, make some changes to its investment and competition policies and direct state enterprises to buy specified amounts of U.S. agricultural and energy products.

The Trump administration will, of course, trumpet the deal as a triumph. In reality, however, it’s much ado about nothing much.

As described, the deal would do little to address real complaints about Chinese policy, which mainly involve China’s systematic expropriation of intellectual property. Nor would it do much to address Donald Trump’s pet although misguided peeve, the imbalance in U.S.-China trade. Basically, Trump will have backed down.

If this is the story, it will repeat what we saw on the North American Free Trade Agreement, which Trump denounced as the “worst trade deal ever made.” In the end, what Trump negotiated — the U.S. Mexico Canada Agreement, or U.S.M.C.A. — was very similar to the previous status quo. Trade experts I know, when not referring to it as the Village People agreement, call it “Nafta 0.8”: fundamentally the same as Nafta, but a bit worse.”

Source: Opinion | America the Cowardly Bully – The New York Times

Posted in: Trade and Trade Policy, Trade and Trade Policy

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Opinion | After the Trump-Kim Failure – By Nicholas Kristof – The New York Times

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By Nicholas Kristof

Opinion Columnist

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President Trump and Kim Jong-un in Hanoi, Vietnam, on Thursday.CreditCreditEvan Vucci/Associated Press

“President Trump was right to walk away from his summit with Kim Jong-un rather than accept a bad nuclear agreement, but the outcome underscores that he was bamboozled last year at his first summit with Kim. Whatever genius Trump sees in the mirror, “the art of the deal” is not his thing.

At this meeting, Kim apparently sought a full end to sanctions on North Korea in exchange for closing only some nuclear sites. That was not a good deal, and Trump was right to walk rather than accept it.

“Basically they wanted the sanctions lifted in their entirety, but we couldn’t do that,” Trump said, adding: “Sometimes you have to walk.”

President Reagan famously marched out of a 1986 summit in Reykjavik, Iceland, rather than accept an arms control agreement with Russia that he regarded as flawed. A year later the Russians returned with better terms and a deal was made — and we can all hope that something similar will happen this time.”

Source: Opinion | After the Trump-Kim Failure – The New York Times

Posted in: Korea - North and South Korea, Nicholas Kristof

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Trump Undermines Top Trade Adviser as He Pushes for China Deal – By Ana Swanson – The New York Times

WASHINGTON — President Trump has signaled that he is moving toward peace with China in a trade standoff that has rattled markets and businesses globally. But as he backs off his threat to impose higher tariffs, the president’s relationship with his own trade negotiator is now showing signs of strain.

The situation has left Mr. Trump’s trade representative, Robert Lighthizer, who is both an ardent supporter of the president and a longtime China critic, in an uncomfortable bind. While broad tariffs on Chinese imports brought Beijing to the negotiating table, Mr. Trump has grown impatient with the talks, and a consensus is growing in Washington that Mr. Trump will ultimately accept a weak deal.

And despite the lack of a transformative arrangement he once promised, the president has begun dangling the idea of a “signing summit” with President Xi Jinping of China at Mar-a-Lago, Mr. Trump’s Florida resort. As a result, the president is undermining Mr. Lighthizer as he tries to pressure China to make big concessions.

“Trump is certainly doing his negotiating team no favors by undercutting them in public,” said Eswar Prasad, a trade expert and the former head of the China division of the International Monetary Fund. The president’s actions, he said, “weakens rather than fortifies Lighthizer’s leverage.””

Source: Trump Undermines Top Trade Adviser as He Pushes for China Deal – The New York Times

David Lindsay Jr.
Hamden, CT | Pending Approval

Posted in: China, David Lindsay, Trade and Trade Policy, Trade and Trade Policy

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Opinion | China Isn’t Having Enough Babies – The New York Times

By Wang Feng and Yong Cai

Mr. Wang and Mr. Cai are sociologists.

Image.  CreditAndy Wong/Associated Press

“Fewer babies were born in China last year than in 2017, and already fewer had been born in 2017 than in 2016. There were 15.23 million new births in 2018, down by more than 11 percent from the year before. The authorities had predicted that easing and then abolishing the one-child policy in the mid-2010s would trigger a baby boom; it’s been more like a baby bust.

No, these figures don’t mean that China’s population itself has started to decline. But they do mean that the population overall is aging, and fast. And they mean that the Chinese government can no longer manipulate fertility with blunt pro-natal policies; the reasons for the drop run too deep. Instead of futile, retrograde statist intervention in people’s reproductive choices, the authorities should undertake broad economic and social reforms to address the deep causes of the decline while mitigating the burdens of its worst effects.”

Source: Opinion | China Isn’t Having Enough Babies – The New York Times

David Lindsay:  The writers do well, but they do not connect to climate change and the sixth extinction, which makes their work very anthropocentric.

Posted in: China, Population Growth

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Opinion | China’s Online Censorship Stifles Trade- Too – By Tim Wu – The New York Times

Tim Wu

By Tim Wu

Mr. Wu is a law professor who specializes in technology.

“As China and the United States engage in high-level negotiations over a possible trade deal, it’s puzzling to see what’s been left off the table: the Chinese internet market. China blocks or hinders nearly every important foreign competitor online, including Google, Facebook, Wikipedia in Chinese, Pinterest, Line (the major Japanese messaging company), Reddit and The New York Times. Even Peppa Pig, a British cartoon character and internet video sensation, has been censored on and off; an editorial in the Communist Party’s official People’s Daily newspaper once warned that she could “destroy children’s youth.”

China has long defended its censorship as a political matter, a legitimate attempt to protect citizens from what the government regards as “harmful information,” including material that “spreads unhealthy lifestyles and pop culture.” But you don’t need to be a trade theorist to realize that the censorship is also an extremely effective barrier to international trade. The global internet economy is worth at least $8 trillion and growing, yet the Trump administration has focused chiefly on manufacturing, technology transfers and agriculture, and does not seem to have pressed for concessions on this issue.

Sheltered from American, Japanese and European competition, Chinese internet businesses have grown enormously over the past decade. Nine of the world’s 20 largest internet firms, by market value, are now Chinese. Some of this growth reflects the skill and innovation of Chinese engineers, a vibrant start-up culture and the success of Chinese business in catering to local tastes. But it’s hard to believe that this has been unaided by censorship.

And the barriers to foreign competition have more than just economic effects. Without any better options, Chinese users are forced to put up with companies like Tencent, which owns the private messaging app WeChat, and the online payment company Ant Financial, whose privacy violations are, amazingly, even more troubling than those of Facebook and Cambridge Analytica. By tolerating Chinese censorship, the United States encourages other countries to do the same.”

Source: Opinion | China’s Online Censorship Stifles Trade, Too – The New York Times

Posted in: China, Trade and Trade Policy, Trade and Trade Policy

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India’s Leader Is Accused of Hiding Unemployment Data Before Vote – By Jeffrey Gettleman and Hari Kumar – The New York Times

NEW DELHI — When voters swept Prime Minister Narendra Modi into power five years ago, it was in no small part because of his vows to create millions of jobs and vault India into an era of prosperity.

But now, just months before the next general election, Mr. Modi is facing a potentially troublesome challenge on the jobs promises that may be partly of his own making.

His government was accused on Thursday of suppressing an official report on the national unemployment rate that apparently showed it had reached a 45-year high in 2017.

The Business Standard, a respected Indian financial newspaper, published leaked findings from the unemployment report, which is based on a survey and produced by the National Sample Survey Office, a government agency.

Officials in Mr. Modi’s government scrambled on Thursday to blunt the impact of what amounted to withholding information that discredits the core of his economic record. The chairman of NITI Aayog, a government research organization, said the unemployment report was still in draft form, was not ready for dissemination and would be released in March. The response raised the possibility that the data could be revised.

But economists said the findings, if verified, were problematic for Mr. Modi, the dynamic prime minister whose popularity has always rested on his Hindu nationalism and promises to make India an economic powerhouse rivaling China.

Source: India’s Leader Is Accused of Hiding Unemployment Data Before Vote – The New York Times

Yes, thank you Jeffrey Gettleman and Hari Kumar. So much to learn. Here are two popular comments I endorsed:

Steve Davies
Tampa, Fl.

I lived in Southern India (Kerala) and traveled throughout India. The country is a great example of the sad dystopia of overpopulation, fierce/ancient religious rivalries, income inequality, lack of infrastructure, Hindu nationalism, corruption at every level, and environmental destruction. Modi is a dangerous man. He’s a Hindu nationalist. He’s also a globalist who is selling off Indians and their ecology to the global corporate elite. He is in bed with Trump and Trump’s children in several development projects. His scandalous government smears indigenous people as “Maoist rebels” as a ploy to steal their land from them to hand it over to plunderers such as international logging, damming and mining companies. Climate change is coming in hard on India. Of note, Kamala Harris is also a Hindu nationalist and has endorsed Modi. Read the non-fiction book “Maximum City” and the fictional book “Shantaram” for a vivid depiction of modern India.

Sam Sengupta commented January 31

Sam Sengupta
Utica, NY
Times Pick

Thanks for a very illuminating article on India and how it has been ravaged by the incompetency of BJP party during its last 5 year stint. That the job growth rate would be dismal regardless of how we slice it was expected. The current ruling party has had no specific economic plan in mind to transform economically disadvantaged India; it simply basked in its own propaganda magic while young educated people began rushing in to join the behemoth of the unemployed ones. The party thought that foreign investment would lift India up, but potential investors stayed away at a comfortable distance. Modi can blame almost everybody for India’s lackluster performance except himself and his party. His party finds it difficult to understand how no foreign investor is willing enough to pump resources in a country beset with a steady stream of open communal threats from party top-braces, with frequent lynching, raping, burning and destruction of properties orchestrated by its rank and file. How could the country get out of such a mess? It cannot as long as it ignores the compelling physical reality in favor of its dream of transforming India to a Hindu nation.

Posted in: India, Politics and Economics

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Can China Turn the Middle of Nowhere Into the Center of the World Economy? – The New York Times

“The Eurasian Pole of Inaccessibility is a striking name for an absence. It is the point farthest from a sea or ocean on the planet. Located in China just east of the border with Kazakhstan, the pole gets you a good distance from harbors and coastlines — at least 1,550 miles in any direction — into an expanse of white steppe and blue-beige mountain that is among the least populated places on earth. Here, among some of the last surviving pastoral nomads in Central Asia, nestled between two branches of the Tian Shan range on the edge of Kazakhstan, the largest infrastructure project in the history of the world is growing.

About 80 miles from the Pole of Inaccessibility, just across the border in Kazakhstan, is a village called Khorgos. It has spent most of its existence on the obscure periphery of international affairs, and its official population is just 908. But over the last few years, it has become an important node of the global economy. It is part of an initiative known informally as the new Silk Road, a China-led effort to build a vast cephalopodic network of highways, railroads and overseas shipping routes, supported by hundreds of new plants, pipelines and company towns in dozens of countries. Ultimately, the Belt and Road Initiative, or B.R.I., as the project is more formally known, will link China’s coastal factories and rising consumer class with Central, Southeast and South Asia; with the Gulf States and the Middle East; with Africa; and with Russia and all of Europe, all by way of a lattice of land and sea routes whose collective ambition boggles the mind.

Khorgos is a flagship project of this work in progress, an international shipping hub and free-trade zone that its promoters say is poised to become the next Dubai. Thanks to its location at the junction of the world’s soon-to-be-largest national economy and its largest landlocked country, Khorgos has become an unlikely harbinger of the interconnected planet: a zone fully enclosed by the logic of globalization, where goods flow freely across sovereign borders, following corridors designed to locate every human being on the planet within a totalizing network of producers and consumers, buyers and sellers.”

Source: Can China Turn the Middle of Nowhere Into the Center of the World Economy? – The New York Times

Posted in: China, kazakhstan

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A Tiny Screw Shows Why iPhones Won’t Be ‘Assembled in U.S.A.’ – The New York Times

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“SAN FRANCISCO — Despite a trade war between the United States and China and past admonishments from President Trump “to start building their damn computers and things in this country,” Apple is unlikely to bring its manufacturing closer to home.

A tiny screw illustrates why.

In 2012, Apple’s chief executive, Timothy D. Cook, went on prime-time television to announce that Apple would make a Mac computer in the United States. It would be the first Apple product in years to be manufactured by American workers, and the top-of-the-line Mac Pro would come with an unusual inscription: “Assembled in USA.”

But when Apple began making the $3,000 computer in Austin, Tex., it struggled to find enough screws, according to three people who worked on the project and spoke on the condition of anonymity because of confidentiality agreements.

In China, Apple relied on factories that can produce vast quantities of custom screws on short notice. In Texas, where they say everything is bigger, it turned out the screw suppliers were not.”

Source: A Tiny Screw Shows Why iPhones Won’t Be ‘Assembled in U.S.A.’ – The New York Times

Posted in: Business and Finance, China, United States

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Opinion | The Malign Incompetence of the British Ruling Class – By Pankaj Mishra – The New York Times

By Pankaj Mishra

Mr. Mishra is the author, most recently, of “Age of Anger: A History of the Present.”

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Earl and Countess Mountbatten, behind naval and military members of the governor-general’s staff, walk down the steps of Government House in New Delhi, India, June 21, 1948.CreditCreditAssociated Press

“Describing Britain’s calamitous exit from its Indian empire in 1947, the novelist Paul Scott wrote that in India the British “came to the end of themselves as they were” — that is, to the end of their exalted idea about themselves. Scott was among those shocked by how hastily and ruthlessly the British, who had ruled India for more than a century, condemned it to fragmentation and anarchy; how Louis Mountbatten, accurately described by the right-wing historian Andrew Roberts as a “mendacious, intellectually limited hustler,” came to preside, as the last British viceroy of India, over the destiny of some 400 million people.

Britain’s rupture with the European Union is proving to be another act of moral dereliction by the country’s rulers. The Brexiteers, pursuing a fantasy of imperial-era strength and self-sufficiency, have repeatedly revealed their hubris, mulishness and ineptitude over the past two years. Though originally a “Remainer,” Prime Minister Theresa May has matched their arrogant obduracy, imposing a patently unworkable timetable of two years on Brexit and laying down red lines that undermined negotiations with Brussels and doomed her deal to resoundingly bipartisan rejection this week in Parliament.

Such a pattern of egotistic and destructive behavior by the British elite flabbergasts many people today. But it was already manifest seven decades ago during Britain’s rash exit from India.”

Source: Opinion | The Malign Incompetence of the British Ruling Class – The New York Times

Posted in: India, Western Countires

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Glaciers Are Retreating. Millions Rely on Their Water. – The New York Times

“On a summer day in the mountains high above Almaty, Kazakhstan’s largest city, the Tuyuksu glacier is melting like mad. Rivulets of water stream down the glacier’s thin leading edge.

As she has for nearly two decades, Maria Shahgedanova, a glaciologist at the University of Reading in England, has come here to check on the Tuyuksu. As one of the longest-studied glaciers anywhere, the Tuyuksu helps gauge the impact of climate change on the world’s ice.”

Source: Glaciers Are Retreating. Millions Rely on Their Water. – The New York Times

Posted in: Climate Change, East Asia

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